Warning: Spoilers follow for House of the Dragon Seasons 1 and 2 as well as major spoilers for the book Fire & Blood.
With two seasons down, we’re theoretically at the midway point now in House of the Dragon, which is based on a big chunk of George R.R. Martin’s history of Westeros, Fire & Blood. Martin has said that the show will likely run for four seasons, and a familiarity with the book allows us to make some predictions about the shape of the next two seasons as a result. But a knowledge of book spoilers also raises a huge question: What is the endgame here for HBO and showrunner Ryan Condal, and how on Earth are they going to get us there? Has the show veered too far from its source material to use the book’s original ending?
Casual readers and regular viewers will know that this looming civil war in the Seven Kingdoms is called the Dance of the Dragons – but let’s get into some (again, major) spoilers about what that means…
The war takes place largely in the middle of Westeros, the Riverlands, Crownlands and the Reach, above Dorne and below the Neck. It will end with almost all of House Targaryen’s dragons dead or dying, and the line reduced to a couple of deeply traumatised child heirs: Aegon III, last seen on the show as a toddler, and his younger brother Viserys (on the show they’re twins), who gets lost for decades before finding his way home.
If they stick anywhere close to the book, almost everyone you love in the show is going to die, many of them horribly. Aemond (Ewan Mitchell) and Daemon (Matt Smith) engage in mutually assured destruction on their dragons over the God’s Eye lake, as partly predicted by Helaena (Phia Saban) in the finale of Season 2. The show will, it feels likely, lean into the book’s suggestion that Daemon survives the battle and disappears with a mysterious dragon-riding girl called Nettles that he has taken under his wing; in the show, her role seems certain to be taken by Daemon’s daughter Rhaena (Phoebe Campbell). Nevertheless, he will bow out of the narrative, probably late next season.
Alicent (Olivia Cooke) ends up locked in a tower and dies of a fever, though she survives into the reign of Aegon III. Jace (Harry Collett) dies pointlessly; as does Rhaenyra’s third son Joffrey (Oscar Eskinazi). Likeable Ser Simon Strong (Simon Russell Beale) will be fed to Vhagar by Aemond; likeable Ser Tyland Lannister (Jefferson Hall) will be maimed, gelded and blinded by Rhaenyra’s torturers. Ulf (Tom Bennett) and Hugh (Kieran Bew) will turn on Rhaenyra’s Blacks mid-battle, with devastating results, but will not live long after. Helaena herself apparently dies by suicide, but there are rumours that Rhaenyra ordered the death.
And Rhaenyra herself will have everything stripped away. She marches into King’s Landing unopposed but cannot hold it; the mob rises up and kills her dragons. The Iron Throne cuts her flesh, while her inquisitors fill the walls with the heads of suspected enemies. She loses two sons to death, and another to pirates. When she eventually limps back to Dragonstone, she finds the Greens waiting for her, led by the injured but still determined Aegon II (Tom Glynn-Carney). She is roasted by dragon fire in her own courtyard, in front of a son who will one day become king but who will never know joy again.
That might make for a dark but thrilling tale, except that Fire & Blood already differs in significant ways from its TV show adaptation. Most notably, Rhaenyra is significantly less sympathetic in the book. The book’s Rhaenyra is imperious and haughty with her allies and family, and her inaction in the early stages of the war is presented more as a character defect than as a noble desire to avoid bloodshed. She’s still not the one who orders the death of young Jaehaerys, but the book mentions Daemon sending a message about “a son for a son” before the murder with no demurral from her. She definitely uses torture and tyranny when she does take the throne, and becomes deeply suspicious of everyone around her. The book’s Rhaenyra also doesn’t have the same motive as the show’s in her determination to rule: the “Aegon’s dream” prophecy about the Song of Ice and Fire, saying that only a Targaryen ruler can save the world from the Night King. TV Rhaenyra doesn’t seek the throne only from a lust for power but also from duty, and that’s totally lacking in the book, so it’s easier to dislike her.
Maybe the show won’t do all those awful things, or put her through the ringer to that degree. But there’s little to no indication yet that House of the Dragon will differ significantly in outcome, as opposed to method, from the book. Martin’s history of Westeros is a fixed canon, and with other spin-offs like Knight of the Seven Kingdoms in the works, there’s little sign that showrunner Ryan Condal can have, say, Rhaenyra can rule peacefully for decades. The broad dynastic questions are going to turn out the same way. Which means that Rhaenyra is going to have two seasons of losing everything she cares about, before being killed. And how are we, as an audience, supposed to take pleasure in that when Emma D’Arcy’s version of the character seems basically decent?
You might argue that that arc is more or less what Game of Thrones did to Daenerys (Emilia Clarke) – but the difference is that no one knew that was where we were going, and most people hated it when we got there. What’s more, if they do try to repeat that gambit, making Rhaenyra less sympathetic from here on in, it will feel a bit been there, seen that. To be fair, Season 2 dropped some breadcrumbs along those lines: Rhaenyra slapping a councillor to get the respect she feels is due, her ruthlessness in basically sending dozens of Dragonseeds to their fiery death in the hopes that the dragons would choose a couple as new riders, and so on. If her paranoia grows, she loses more children and her forces start to fail, you can imagine her turning bitter and angry. But is anyone excited to see that? That was the climax of the other show, however imperfectly realised, and it’s not a great message if two consecutive Westeros shows end with a “bitches be crazy” moral.
So where are we going? It feels like Rhaenyra will pretty swiftly occupy King’s Landing next season (at least swiftly by the standards of the glacial pacing on this show) and immediately begin to screw it all up. Daemon’s vision suggests we’re definitely going to see the mobs of the Capital attack the Dragonpit, as in the book, and slaughter its scaly inhabitants, which is going to be traumatic viewing for fantasy fans. Helaena’s prophecy to Aemond also suggests he’s headed to the God’s Eye and his death. Ulf’s already leaning mutinous under Rhaenyra; it feels like Hugh could be prodded the same way if his wife reappears and starts pointing out that Rhaenyra’s strategies are directly linked to their daughter’s death. Much of what happens in the book feels locked in, to build to a child king sitting on the throne and the Starks having to march down to sort the South out. But isn’t a repetition of the last show’s generally hated ending going to make viewers furious?
So what’s the alternative? Maybe Rhaenyra will somehow escape her fate, but flee Westeros. Perhaps the show will turn out to have been about the multiple-murderer Daemon all along, with him flying off into the sunset on his daughter’s dragon to set up some new spin-off about Valyria or Essos. Or are we seriously expected to just enjoy another ending where our blonde heroine dies, somewhat deservedly, and a traumatised child is left on the throne?
Of course, Martin’s writing often leans in to the darkest side of the human character and all the evils man is capable of. He likes to pull the wool out from under us, turning obvious heroes into villains or failures and apparent villains into temporary allies. He likes to show the circularity of history, even, and the parallels between generations. OK! But there also has to be hope, or suspense, or a sense of narrative climax, and it’s hard to see what’s going to be left after another two seasons of this. Maybe that’s why the storytelling was so slow in Season 2: Even the showrunners don’t want to get where they’re going.
source https://www.ign.com/articles/has-house-of-the-dragon-veered-too-far-from-fire-blood-to-use-its-original-ending